Part 1
The Origins of Weather Forecasting
The Origins of Weather Forecasting
The world’s first public weather forecast appeared in The Times newspaper over 150 years ago: the beginning of a service that gives everyone something to comment on. The pioneering forecast on August 1, 1861, was introduced with a deceptively simple heading: "General weather probable during next two days." But those few words started an ongoing controversy that still continues today -- after all, everyone remembers the forecasts that go wrong, but rarely the ones that are right.
The first forecast was the idea of Admiral Robert FitzRoy, head of the newly founded Meteorological Department, and one of Britain’s greatest but least-known heroes. It was a brave undertaking, because in those days predicting the weather had gained a reputation similar to astrology or fortune-telling. The few people who attempted it had become a national joke when their forecasts inevitably went wrong. FitzRoy was different, though. His background was faultless, most famously his captaining of the ship HMS Beagle on Charles Darwin’s voyage around the world, which eventually led to the publication of Darwin’s well-known book On the Origin of Species.
When FitzRoy retired from active service as an admiral in Britain’s navy, he was looking for a new direction. He subsequently secured a job as chief statistician at the Meteorological Department, part of the Board of Trade. Parliament had voted to set up and fund the Meteorological Department on June 30, 1854, to chart the safest sailing routes across the Atlantic Ocean. However, the British Government was not impressed with the idea of collecting weather reports and establishing a weather forecast, and the suggestion by one Member of Parliament for this was met with laughter from the other MPs.
FitzRoy was given a staff of three clerks in a small office in London, but he soon grew bored with the tedium of transcribing thousands of ships’ reports. Instead, he focused on a much more pressing issue -- the huge loss of life at sea from storms. This problem came to a head in 1859, when gale-force winds sank the ship named Royal Charter, with the loss of 430 lives, within sight of the shore. Even in those days when ships regularly sank in storms, the loss of the Royal Charter was considered a national tragedy. FitzRoy stirred up feelings even further when he wrote a letter to The Times newspaper explaining that the storm had been entirely predictable. That same year, a total of 1,645 lives were lost off the British coast, and FitzRoy wrote repeatedly to The Times pushing for a storm-warning service for shipping.
This was just the right moment for a national forecasting service. Knowledge of the weather was improving, barometer readings gave warning of approaching storms, and the invention of the electric telegraph and Morse code in 1844 gave instant communication for the first time. So in February 1861, FitzRoy pressed ahead with a storm-warning service. Previous weather reports had been unreliable, but FitzRoy’s innovation was to issue ships with standardised instruments which allowed for accurate weather reports.
At exactly the same time each day the information was sent to him by telegraph, and he was able to draw up more detailed weather maps. The approach of an incoming storm could be recognised, and from London, FitzRoy could telegraph warnings to ports on the coast, where an ingenious system of flags was hoisted up high for passing ships to read. This represented the biggest advance in shipping safety after the introduction of the lifeboat, and in subsequent years the number of lives lost around Britain fell by about a third. FitzRoy became a hero to the fishing and maritime fleets.
Encouraged by his storm-warning success, FitzRoy then started a public weather forecasting service. As he had a close connection with The Times, this newspaper introduced his daily forecast in August 1861. It attracted huge attention, including from Queen Victoria, who regularly sent messengers to FitzRoy’s office to get a forecast for the sea crossing over the Solent to an island which she liked to visit off the south coast of England.
He was also popular with ordinary fishermen, who were happy not to be out at sea in bad weather. The owners of fishing vessels, however, were not supportive of FitzRoy’s forecasts, which often caused delays for them when bad weather was forecast. Nevertheless, weather forecasting at that time was very difficult, and one mistake could result in much bad publicity. It wasn’t long before some forecasts turned out wrong, and the letters pages of The Times were full of heated correspondence.
It is indisputable that FitzRoy was way ahead of his time, but it is only in recent years that he has been recognized as a towering figure in meteorology, with the honour of an area of sea being given his name in the shipping forecast, a radio broadcast of weather reports for the seas around Britain. His extraordinary determination to get forecasting established cost him dearly though, and he died prematurely. But his legacy lives on, because late in his life he published a book about weather forecasting which was recognized by other scientists to be well ahead of its time.
Questions 1-5
Do the following statements agree with the information given in the text?
1. In Robert FitzRoy’s time, weather forecasting was a respected skill.
2. When FitzRoy retired from the navy, he had already had a successful career at sea.
3. FitzRoy faced competition from other applicants for the chief statistician’s job.
4. The British Parliament supported the idea of regular weather forecasts in 1854.
5. Progress in technology made it a good time for publicly available weather forecasting to begin.
Questions 6-13
Complete the notes below. Write ONE WORD ONLY from the passage for each answer.
February 1861: Storm warning service
- FitzRoy received weather reports produced by ships using reliable 6.
- simultaneous weather reports were taken daily
- storm warnings were telegraphed to 7 along the shore
- signals for ships were displayed using raised 8
- the storm warning service was the greatest development in sea safety since the 9 was introduced
August 1861: Public weather forecasting service
- very popular in The Times newspaper
- frequently used by the English Queen for safe trips to a favourite 10
- FitzRoy’s forecasts were popular with fishermen but not with boat 11
- in modern times FitzRoy’s 12 is used for a marine area
- FitzRoy produced a 13 which was respected by the scientific community
Part 2
Creative Problem-Solving
Creative Problem-Solving
Puzzle-solving is an ancient, universal practice, scholars say, and it depends on creative insight, or a primitive spark. Now, modern neuroscientists are beginning to tap its source.
A
In a recent study, researchers at Northwestern University in the United States found that people were more likely to solve word puzzles with sudden insight when they were amused, having just seen a short comedy routine. ‘What we think is happening,’ said Dr Mark Beeman, a neuroscientist who worked on the study, 'is that the humor, this positive mood, is lowering the brain's threshold for detecting weaker or more remote connections,' which enable people to solve puzzles.
B
This suggests that the appeal of puzzles goes far deeper than the pleasant rush of finding a solution. The very act of doing a puzzle typically shifts the brain into an open, playful state that is itself a pleasing escape. Unlike the social and professional mysteries in the real world, puzzles are reassuringly solvable; but like any serious problem, they require more than mere intellect to crack. ‘It’s imagination, it's inference, it's guessing; and much of it is happening subconsciously,’ said Dr Marcel Danesi, a professor of anthropology at the University of Toronto, Canada. ‘It’s all about you, using your own mind, without any method or schema, to restore order from chaos,’ Danesi said. ‘And once you have, you can sit back and say, "Hey, the rest of my life may be a disaster, but at least I have a solution".’
C
For almost a century scientists have used puzzles to study what they call ‘insight thinking’, the leaps of understanding that seem to come out of the blue. In one experiment, the German psychologist Karl Duncker presented people with a candle, a box of pins, and the task of attaching the candle to a wall. About a quarter of the subjects thought to use the pins to tack the box to the wall as a support -- some immediately, and others after failed efforts to tack wax to the wall. According to Duncker, the creative leap seems to have been informed by subconscious cues. In another well-known experiment, psychologists H.G. Birch and H.S. Rabinowitz challenged people to tie together two cords; the cords were hanging from the ceiling of a large room, too far apart to be grabbed at the same time. A small percentage of people solved it without any help, by tying something else to one cord and swinging it like a pendulum so that it could be caught while they held the other cord. In some experiments researchers gave clues to those who were stumped -- for instance, by bumping into one of the strings so that it swung. Many of those who then solved the problem said they had no recollection of the clue, though it very likely registered subconsciously.
D
All along, researchers have debated the definitions of insight and analysis, and some have concluded that the two are merely different sides of the same coin. Yet in an authoritative discussion of the research carried out so far, the psychologists Jonathan W. Schooler and Joseph Melcher concluded that the abilities most strongly correlated with insight problem-solving ‘were not significantly correlated’ with solving analytical problems. Either way, creative problem-solving usually requires both analysis and insight. Adam Anderson, a psychologist at the University of Toronto, Canada, argues that although when people are solving problems they may move back and forth between these abilities, they are truly different brain states.
E
At first, studies did little more than confirm that brain areas that register reward spiked in activity when people came up with a solution, that is to say once they had completed a puzzle. However, in a series of recent studies, John Kounios, a psychologist at Drexel University in the United States, has imaged people’s brains as they prepare to tackle a puzzle, but before they’ve seen it. Those whose brains show a particular signature of preparatory activity, one that is strongly correlated with positive moods, turn out to be more likely to solve the puzzles with sudden insight than with trial and error (the clues can be solved either way). Previous research has also found activation of cells in a certain area of the brain when people widen or narrow their attention -- say, when they filter out distractions to focus on a difficult task, like concentrating on someone’s voice in a noisy room. In the case of insight puzzle-solving, the brain seems to widen its attention, in effect making itself more susceptible to distraction.
F
In the humor study, Beeman had college students solve word-association puzzles after watching a short video showing a stand-up comedian. Beeman found that these students solved more of the puzzles overall, and significantly more by sudden insight, compared with when they’d seen a scary or boring video beforehand. This ‘open’ state of mind does not only apply to intellectual puzzles. In a study published last year, researchers at the University of Toronto found that people in positive moods picked up more background detail, even when they were told to block out distracting information during a computer task. The findings fit with dozens of experiments linking positive moods to better creative problem solving. The implication is that positive mood engages this broad, … attentional state that is both perceptual and visual,’ said Anderson. He explains that not only are people in a positive mood able to think more broadly, they are able to notice more visually.
Questions 14-19
Reading Passage 2 has six paragraphs, A-F. Which paragraph contains the following information?
NB You may use any letter more than once.
| A | B | C | D | E | F | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14. a claim that people enjoy the process of doing puzzles as well as finding the answers | ||||||
| 15. a review of studies that looked at the relationship between insight and analysis | ||||||
| 16. the finding that people were less likely to solve puzzles after viewing uninteresting or disturbing material | ||||||
| 17. a comparison between doing puzzles and dealing with life challenges | ||||||
| 18. a description of a study where the subjects were given hints by those conducting the research | ||||||
| 19. details of a study in which the focus shifted to mental activity before a puzzle is attempted |
Questions 20-23
Look at the following statements and the list of researchers below. Match each statement with the correct researcher, A-E.
A. Mark Beeman
B. Marcel Danesi
C. Karl Duncker
D. Adam Anderson
E. John Kounios
20 Solving a puzzle may help people facing difficulties feel better.
21 Two distinctly separate functions of the brain are used when solving puzzles.
22 Some subjects were able to find a solution to the puzzle they were given without knowing how they had done it.
23 Seeing something funny helps people make links that may not be obvious at first.
Questions 24-26
Complete the summary below. Choose ONE WORD ONLY from the passage for each answer.
Kounios builds on studies of puzzle-solvers’ brain activity
Early studies showed that when people solved a puzzle, the parts of the brain linked to reward were more active. Studies by Kounios reveal that when people are feeling 24 during the preparatory stage, it is more probable that they will use insight to solve puzzles. The part of the brain that is affected is connected with the adjustment of people’s attention. When someone is trying to listen to a 25 when the general sound level is high, the focus narrows. When people solve puzzles using insight, their focus becomes wider, and they are more open to 26.
Part 3
Robert Louis Stevenson
Robert Louis Stevenson
The writer of some of the best-known stories in the English language, including Treasure Island and the strange case of Dr Jekyll and Mr. Hyde
A
It is more than 100 years since the death of the Scottish writer Robert Louis Stevenson on the South Pacific island of Samoa. And it seems that time has not been kind to Stevenson's memory. Immediately after his death, his family and friends set to work to fashion the legend of Robert Louis Stevenson, or R.L.S as he became known -- one of the few writers familiar from his initials alone. Subsequent works of biography then turned him into a writer of almost religious importance. One example was history critic Balfour, who in 1901 portrayed Stevenson's family as ministering angels to the dying genius during his final illness. Similarly, the biographer Crouch absurdly overstated Stevenson's significance by placing in the same company as those most revered natures in English literature, Shakespeare and Keats. The reaction to this nonsense was a number of highly critical assessments of Stevenson's legacy in the 1920s.
B
Normally, the critical pendulum can be relied on to swing back again, but there are several aspects of Stevenson's work that has until recently acted against a more balanced appraisal. First is the allegation that Stevenson was a mere master of linguistic fireworks who lacked moral depth. Some critics accused him of being a literacy charlatan of juggling words very prettily to strike effects that overawed an ignorant public, and served to distract from the inadequacy of his ideas.
C
Then there has been a prejudice against the adventure story as the proper medium for deep moral seriousness, a prejudice which is still extremely influential today. It seems that we can accept that an adventure film can successfully express profound moral truths, but we reject the same idea for a book. The absurdity of this becomes apparent when we think of writers like Joseph Contrad and Graham Greene, but it is no use pretending that this bias against adventure stories is not part of our high culture. A further problem is that Stevenson has often not found favour in the land of his birth because his conservatism so often collides with the strong radical tradition in Scotland. His many escapist stories and preference for living abroad have led to accusations that he camouflaged Scotland's real problems. Lastly, the high adventure of Stevenson's own lifestyle has sometimes obscured his output. His globe-trotting, and above all the final phase of his life in Samoa, tended to make his own life a greater story than any he could devise. This was precisely what his friends feared would happen towards the end of his short life: his art might be overwhelmed by the drama of life in Samoa.
D
One consequence of this has been that Stevenson's influence on other writers has too often been neglected. The writer and poet Oscar Wilde were deeply influenced by Stevenson, even though he declared that Stevenson would have produced better work if he had lived in London rather than Samoa. Stevenson tends to stick in the throat even of those writers who would like to spit him out, such as Shaw, who claimed to have learned from him that the romantic hero is always mocked by reality. Likewise, the writer Gatsworthy, who was a determined critic, later changed his mind and said that the superiority of Stevenson over the novelist Hardy was that Stevenson was all life and Hardy, all death. The influence on the novelist Chesterton would also repay detailed study, for it was through him that Stevenson has managed to cross the ages emerging as an influence on the modernist movement and our own contemporary Latin American school of magical realism.
E
When making an assessment of his life and work, one question must inevitably be asked: was Robert Louis Stevenson Scotland's greatest writer of English prose? For most commentators this honour falls to Sir Walter Scott, author of Ivanhoe among many other classic novels, and it is true that in terms of craftsmanship, precision and the ability to minutely regulate language to create the desired effect, Scott takes the prize. However, this is not the same thing at all as inherent talent: by way of comparison one may take the example of the two great Russian composers Shostakovich and Prokofiev, of whom the former had learned more precise skills of execution but the latter's intrinsic genius was greater, and so it seems to be with Scott and Stevenson. Admittedly, Scott's detailed style does permit his stories to explore levels of tragedy that are beyond Stevenson's reach, but in this regard they have the musty smell of the museum, somehow artificial and removed from modern-day reality. On the other hand, Stevenson's skill with plotting and narrative give his books a timeless quality, so that they still live today. And Stevenson was also the shrewder judge of behavior and psychology. For example, his compelling description of a man with a split personality in the Stranger cave of Dr Jekyll and Mr. Hyde have proved so accessible and accurate that the expression 'Jekyll and Hyde' has entered common English usage. Even if we do not see a revival of critical interest in this great Scottish writer, it is to be hoped that readers go back to Robert Louis Stevenson's magnificent stories and reassess this neglected genius.
Questions 27-31
Choose the correct letter, A, B, C, or D.
27. In the opinion of the writer, the biographers Balfour and Crouch
28. What is the writer’s main point about Stevenson in the second paragraph?
29. According to the writer, the adventure story
30. What point does the writer make about Stevenson and Scotland?
31. According to the writer, Stevenson’s own lifestyle
Questions 32-36
Do the following statements agree with the claims of the writer in Reading Passage 3?
32. Oscar Wilde believed Stevenson could have produced better work if he had lived in London.
33. Stevenson asked Shaw to keep writing.
34. Stevenson’s influence on other writers has often been neglected.
35. Galsworthy later thought Stevenson’s work was superior to Hardy’s in one respect.
36. In this passage, the writer is mainly critical of Robert Louis Stevenson.
Questions 37-40
Complete the table below. Write ONE WORD ONLY from the passage for each answer.
| Sir Walter Scott | Robert Louis Stevenson |
|---|---|
| showed greater craftsmanship and 37 in controlling language | showed greater intrinsic genius |
| his detailed style could explore levels of 38 | his skill with 39 and narrative gave his books a timeless quality |
| was a shrewder judge of behaviour and 40 |
